Coronavirus intervened in Russia’s plans to reduce oil dependence and meet national project indicators. This could be seen already in January: for the first month of 2020, the volume of non-primary non-energy exports (NOE) decreased by 0.4% and amounted to $ 9.7 billion, Izvestia was informed in the Russian Export Center with reference to the FCS data.
Further it will only get worse, Veronika Nikishina, the head of the organization, is sure. The Ministry of Economic Development confirmed the forecast for a decrease. In the I quarter of 2020, the NOE may decrease by 20%, but exporters are in a better position than the rest of the business, experts said.
The main decrease in NOE occurred in the chemical industry: in monetary terms, it decreased by 22% compared to January 2019 and amounted to $ 1 billion, Izvestia was told at the REC. This was due to a decline in supplies of inorganic chemistry products — radioactive materials, ammonia, carbon black, metal oxides, as well as fertilizers and alcohols. In addition, prices for these product groups decreased, explained in the REC.
The export of engineering products was also significantly reduced — it lost 10% compared to last year and totaled $ 1.5 billion. The main decline was in the products of the military-industrial complex and fuel elements of nuclear reactors. At the same time ship and turbo engines deliveries have grown, noted in the export center.
The supply in the timber industry continues to decline: it lost 7%, dropping to $ 802 million. But physical volumes in the industry, on the contrary, are growing, they increased by 6% at the beginning of 2020. And grain exports decreased by 9% and amounted to $ 608 million, reported in REC.
Moving forward, the situation will only worsen, the head of the REC, Veronika Nikishina, is sure.
— In January world trade has already begun to be influenced by coronavirus infections, which affected shipments from Russia. In February and March, when the disease became pandemic and reached almost every country in the world, the situation worsened. We have yet to evaluate the scale,” she said.
In a whole in January, the NOE decreased by 0.4% and amounted to $ 9.7 billion.
Coronavirus Epidemic impact for NOE is still limited, but by the end of the year we expect its slight decrease in the commodity part, the Ministry of Economic Development told Izvestia. If we talk about the export of services, then tourism, transport, and the construction sector will be most affected.
In March 2020 the situation is much worse than in January: states introduce numerous precautions, close borders, which leads to a sharp drop in business activity, the director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis of FBK GrantThornton, Igor Nikolaev said. Most likely, in the I quarter of the loss non-primary exports will amount to much more than tenths of a percent, and will be in the range of 15–20%, the expert predicts. В
As the final result this may lead to failure to fulfill the goals of the national project.
The fact that supplies to China increased in January suggests that the republic did not yet feel the coronavirus consequences, Igor Nikolaev added. And when industrial enterprises began to close, this was reflected primarily in the export of Russian oil, not in non-resource goods, he summed up.
It is easier for exporters to survive in the conditions of the spread of infection and market volatility, since their expenses are formed in rubles, and incomes are in foreign currency, said the co-chairman of Delovaya Rossiya Anton Danilov-Danilyan. Nonetheless the recession, especially in physical volume, non-primary export is inevitable, the expert believes.